DDM Analysis: 9638.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.57 - $5.12	$4.33
Multi-Stage	$5.78 - $6.35	$6.06
Blended Fair Value	$5.20
Current Price	$2.69
Upside	93.17%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.10	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	64.97%	196.75%	91.08%	-46.67%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.44%	2.05%	0.82%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	173.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	66.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)	107.29

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	34.79	21.75	13.05
Cash Retained (M)	107.29	107.29	107.29
(-) Cash Required (M)	-34.79	-21.75	-13.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)	72.50	85.54	94.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	338.48	338.48	338.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.25	0.28
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.25	0.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.41	0.45	0.48
WACC / Discount Rate	9.28%	9.28%	9.28%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$3.57	$4.33	$5.12
Upside / Downside	32.84%	61.06%	90.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	173.97	172.23	170.51	168.80	167.12	165.45	170.41
Payout Ratio	38.33%	48.66%	59.00%	69.33%	79.67%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	66.68	83.81	100.60	117.03	133.13	148.90	157.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.28%	9.28%	9.28%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	75.92	76.70	77.47
Year 2 PV (M)	82.55	84.24	85.95
Year 3 PV (M)	87.00	89.69	92.43
Year 4 PV (M)	89.65	93.36	97.19
Year 5 PV (M)	90.83	95.56	100.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,531.86	1,611.63	1,694.68
Equity Value (M)	1,957.80	2,051.17	2,148.22
Shares Outstanding (M)	338.48	338.48	338.48
Fair Value	$5.78	$6.06	$6.35
Upside / Downside	115.02%	125.28%	135.93%

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Ferretti S.p.A. (9638.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener