Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Conexio Corporation (9422.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,314.57 - $2,574.50$1,812.64
Multi-Stage$1,682.58 - $1,845.46$1,762.48
Blended Fair Value$1,787.56
Current Price$1,908.00
Upside-6.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS6.32%10.22%70.0160.0260.0265.0259.9951.5244.4833.7332.2526.47
YoY Growth--16.65%0.00%-7.70%8.38%16.44%15.83%31.88%4.57%21.88%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.27%4.00%4.22%4.58%3.11%2.67%3.47%2.54%3.64%2.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,616.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,179.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,437.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)723.20452.00271.20
Cash Retained (M)2,437.002,437.002,437.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-723.20-452.00-271.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,713.801,985.002,165.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.7444.7444.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share38.3144.3748.41
LTM Dividend per Share26.3526.3526.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share38.3144.3748.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend64.6670.7274.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate2.15%3.15%4.15%
Fair Value$1,314.57$1,812.64$2,574.50
Upside / Downside-31.10%-5.00%34.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,616.003,729.873,847.323,968.484,093.454,222.354,349.02
Payout Ratio32.61%44.08%55.56%67.04%78.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,179.001,644.282,137.692,660.553,214.213,800.114,022.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate2.15%3.15%4.15%
Year 1 PV (M)1,519.351,534.221,549.09
Year 2 PV (M)1,825.191,861.101,897.36
Year 3 PV (M)2,099.012,161.262,224.73
Year 4 PV (M)2,343.152,436.262,532.12
Year 5 PV (M)2,559.792,687.562,820.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,928.1568,169.1071,538.19
Equity Value (M)75,274.6478,849.5082,561.88
Shares Outstanding (M)44.7444.7444.74
Fair Value$1,682.58$1,762.48$1,845.46
Upside / Downside-11.81%-7.63%-3.28%

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