Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Rise Consulting Group, Inc. (9168.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$557.71 - $853.80$696.02
Multi-Stage$1,175.15 - $1,295.12$1,233.95
Blended Fair Value$964.98
Current Price$1,076.00
Upside-10.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,540.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)218.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,322.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)308.04192.52115.51
Cash Retained (M)1,322.181,322.181,322.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-308.04-192.52-115.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,014.141,129.661,206.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.8224.8224.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share40.8545.5148.61
LTM Dividend per Share8.788.788.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share40.8545.5148.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend49.6354.2957.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$557.71$696.02$853.80
Upside / Downside-48.17%-35.31%-20.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,540.181,524.781,509.531,494.441,479.491,464.701,508.64
Payout Ratio14.15%29.32%44.49%59.66%74.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)218.00447.12671.63891.611,107.121,318.231,395.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)414.72418.95423.19
Year 2 PV (M)577.84589.69601.66
Year 3 PV (M)711.52733.52755.98
Year 4 PV (M)819.49853.46888.46
Year 5 PV (M)905.06952.191,001.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,743.3527,083.8728,479.65
Equity Value (M)29,171.9830,631.6832,150.21
Shares Outstanding (M)24.8224.8224.82
Fair Value$1,175.15$1,233.95$1,295.12
Upside / Downside9.21%14.68%20.36%

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