DDM Analysis: 6969.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.96 - $6.06	$4.94
Multi-Stage	$8.51 - $9.37	$8.93
Blended Fair Value	$6.94
Current Price	$16.64
Upside	-58.30%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2014
DPS	-13.52%	0.00%	0.09	0.12	0.24	0.38	0.00	0.19	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-23.16%	-50.35%	-38.91%	0.00%	-100.00%	552.22%	351.96%	817.79%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.72%	2.03%	2.20%	1.19%	0.00%	0.67%	0.10%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,723.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,111.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,611.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	544.63	340.39	204.24
Cash Retained (M)	1,611.71	1,611.71	1,611.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-544.63	-340.39	-204.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,067.08	1,271.32	1,407.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	6,159.55	6,159.55	6,159.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.21	0.23
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.21	0.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.35	0.39	0.41
WACC / Discount Rate	6.75%	6.75%	6.75%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$3.96	$4.94	$6.06
Upside / Downside	-76.19%	-70.29%	-63.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,723.16	2,695.93	2,668.97	2,642.28	2,615.85	2,589.70	2,667.39
Payout Ratio	40.81%	50.65%	60.49%	70.33%	80.16%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,111.44	1,365.53	1,614.42	1,858.20	2,096.94	2,330.73	2,467.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.75%	6.75%	6.75%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,266.30	1,279.22	1,292.14
Year 2 PV (M)	1,388.31	1,416.79	1,445.56
Year 3 PV (M)	1,481.83	1,527.65	1,574.41
Year 4 PV (M)	1,550.69	1,614.96	1,681.21
Year 5 PV (M)	1,598.32	1,681.55	1,768.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)	45,154.93	47,506.25	49,954.52
Equity Value (M)	52,440.39	55,026.43	57,716.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	6,159.55	6,159.55	6,159.55
Fair Value	$8.51	$8.93	$9.37
Upside / Downside	-48.84%	-46.31%	-43.69%

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Smoore International Holdings Limited (6969.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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