DDM Analysis: 688551.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.25 - $8.05	$6.56
Multi-Stage	$11.70 - $12.86	$12.26
Blended Fair Value	$9.41
Current Price	$43.80
Upside	-78.51%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	44.51%	0.00%	0.61	0.36	0.22	0.19	0.12	0.10	0.11	0.04	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	67.70%	65.90%	14.77%	56.86%	25.84%	-11.69%	154.95%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.20%	0.67%	0.38%	0.41%	0.46%	0.19%	0.22%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	49.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	33.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)	15.24

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.80	6.13	3.68
Cash Retained (M)	15.24	15.24	15.24
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.80	-6.13	-3.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5.44	9.11	11.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	84.31	84.31	84.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.11	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.40	0.40	0.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.11	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.47	0.51	0.54
WACC / Discount Rate	6.68%	6.68%	6.68%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$5.25	$6.56	$8.05
Upside / Downside	-88.01%	-85.02%	-81.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	49.00	48.51	48.03	47.55	47.07	46.60	48.00
Payout Ratio	68.90%	73.12%	77.34%	81.56%	85.78%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	33.76	35.47	37.15	38.78	40.38	41.94	44.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.68%	6.68%	6.68%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	32.92	33.25	33.59
Year 2 PV (M)	31.99	32.64	33.31
Year 3 PV (M)	30.99	31.95	32.92
Year 4 PV (M)	29.94	31.18	32.46
Year 5 PV (M)	28.86	30.36	31.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	831.30	874.59	919.66
Equity Value (M)	985.99	1,033.98	1,083.87
Shares Outstanding (M)	84.31	84.31	84.31
Fair Value	$11.70	$12.26	$12.86
Upside / Downside	-73.30%	-72.00%	-70.65%

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Hefei Kewell Power System Co.,Ltd. (688551.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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