DDM Analysis: 688425.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.89 - $2.70	$2.29
Multi-Stage	$2.84 - $3.13	$2.98
Blended Fair Value	$2.63
Current Price	$5.38
Upside	-51.03%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	-27.62%	0.00%	0.10	0.12	0.11	0.02	0.27	0.51	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-14.24%	6.92%	583.47%	-94.09%	-46.35%	2,098.85%	9.20%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.39%	2.98%	2.09%	0.37%	3.32%	6.19%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,482.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	32.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,450.08

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	296.50	185.31	111.19
Cash Retained (M)	1,450.08	1,450.08	1,450.08
(-) Cash Required (M)	-296.50	-185.31	-111.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,153.58	1,264.77	1,338.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,333.50	5,333.50	5,333.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.24	0.25
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.24	0.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.22	0.24	0.26
WACC / Discount Rate	9.52%	9.52%	9.52%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$1.89	$2.29	$2.70
Upside / Downside	-64.85%	-57.47%	-49.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,482.52	1,467.69	1,453.01	1,438.48	1,424.10	1,409.86	1,452.15
Payout Ratio	2.19%	19.75%	37.31%	54.88%	72.44%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	32.43	289.87	542.16	789.37	1,031.58	1,268.87	1,343.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.52%	9.52%	9.52%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	261.99	264.66	267.34
Year 2 PV (M)	442.88	451.97	461.14
Year 3 PV (M)	582.80	600.83	619.22
Year 4 PV (M)	688.38	716.91	746.31
Year 5 PV (M)	765.28	805.13	846.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)	12,417.19	13,063.78	13,737.03
Equity Value (M)	15,158.52	15,903.27	16,677.67
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,333.50	5,333.50	5,333.50
Fair Value	$2.84	$2.98	$3.13
Upside / Downside	-47.17%	-44.58%	-41.88%

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China Railway Construction Heavy Industry Corporation Limited (688425.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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