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Definitive Analysis

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Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (6168.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.58 - $212.25$95.12
Multi-Stage$178.85 - $197.68$188.08
Blended Fair Value$141.60
Current Price$44.20
Upside220.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.730.800.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.04
YoY Growth--114.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.17%2.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)786.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)98.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)688.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)157.3198.3258.99
Cash Retained (M)688.08688.08688.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-157.31-98.32-58.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)530.77589.76629.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.53373.53373.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.581.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.581.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.841.95
WACC / Discount Rate0.92%0.92%0.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$56.58$95.12$212.25
Upside / Downside28.01%115.20%380.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)786.54778.68770.89763.18755.55747.99770.43
Payout Ratio12.52%28.02%43.51%59.01%74.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)98.47218.15335.42450.33562.91673.19712.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.92%0.92%0.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)213.98216.16218.35
Year 2 PV (M)322.73329.35336.04
Year 3 PV (M)425.02438.16451.57
Year 4 PV (M)521.12542.71564.98
Year 5 PV (M)611.30643.14676.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,713.4368,083.2071,591.92
Equity Value (M)66,807.5770,252.7373,839.13
Shares Outstanding (M)373.53373.53373.53
Fair Value$178.85$188.08$197.68
Upside / Downside304.65%325.51%347.23%

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