Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co., Ltd. (605089.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.02 - $7.80$6.31
Multi-Stage$11.88 - $13.07$12.47
Blended Fair Value$9.39
Current Price$26.10
Upside-64.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.710.590.730.000.000.000.100.090.020.00
YoY Growth--20.52%-20.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%16.21%356.66%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.02%1.89%1.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.549.095.45
Cash Retained (M)23.4423.4423.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.54-9.09-5.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.9014.3617.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)136.62136.62136.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.02$6.31$7.80
Upside / Downside-80.76%-75.84%-70.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.7071.9771.2570.5469.8469.1471.21
Payout Ratio67.75%72.20%76.65%81.10%85.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.2651.9754.6257.2159.7462.2265.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)48.3948.8849.38
Year 2 PV (M)47.3548.3349.31
Year 3 PV (M)46.1947.6249.07
Year 4 PV (M)44.9146.7748.69
Year 5 PV (M)43.5645.8248.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,393.051,465.591,541.12
Equity Value (M)1,623.451,703.021,785.76
Shares Outstanding (M)136.62136.62136.62
Fair Value$11.88$12.47$13.07
Upside / Downside-54.47%-52.24%-49.92%

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