DDM Analysis: 605011.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.29 - $6.62	$5.37
Multi-Stage	$9.62 - $10.60	$10.10
Blended Fair Value	$7.74
Current Price	$21.56
Upside	-64.12%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-7.44%	0.00%	0.20	0.23	0.30	0.31	0.31	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.22	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-10.45%	-24.11%	-5.52%	0.00%	5.78%	-0.89%	1.49%	33.28%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.78%	0.97%	1.97%	1.64%	3.54%	3.35%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	188.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	78.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)	109.18

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	37.61	23.51	14.10
Cash Retained (M)	109.18	109.18	109.18
(-) Cash Required (M)	-37.61	-23.51	-14.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)	71.56	85.67	95.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	404.76	404.76	404.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.21	0.23
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.21	0.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.37	0.41	0.43
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$4.29	$5.37	$6.62
Upside / Downside	-80.11%	-75.09%	-69.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	188.06	186.18	184.32	182.48	180.65	178.85	184.21
Payout Ratio	41.95%	51.56%	61.17%	70.78%	80.39%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	78.89	95.99	112.75	129.15	145.23	160.96	170.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	89.23	90.14	91.05
Year 2 PV (M)	97.42	99.42	101.43
Year 3 PV (M)	103.73	106.94	110.21
Year 4 PV (M)	108.42	112.92	117.55
Year 5 PV (M)	111.70	117.52	123.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,385.10	3,561.38	3,744.91
Equity Value (M)	3,895.61	4,088.30	4,288.73
Shares Outstanding (M)	404.76	404.76	404.76
Fair Value	$9.62	$10.10	$10.60
Upside / Downside	-55.36%	-53.15%	-50.85%

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Hangzhou Cogeneration Group Co., Ltd. (605011.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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