DDM Analysis: 603989.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.42 - $19.03	$13.14
Multi-Stage	$13.02 - $14.29	$13.64
Blended Fair Value	$13.39
Current Price	$18.61
Upside	-28.05%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.28%	3.87%	0.36	0.35	0.33	0.33	0.30	0.31	0.61	0.59	0.53	0.66
YoY Growth	-	-	3.98%	4.86%	-0.21%	8.93%	-0.85%	-49.98%	3.06%	12.69%	-20.25%	168.57%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.32%	1.96%	1.27%	1.22%	1.03%	1.35%	2.88%	1.96%	1.87%	3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	221.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	69.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)	151.67

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	44.24	27.65	16.59
Cash Retained (M)	151.67	151.67	151.67
(-) Cash Required (M)	-44.24	-27.65	-16.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)	107.43	124.02	135.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	398.50	398.50	398.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.31	0.34
LTM Dividend per Share	0.17	0.17	0.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.31	0.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.44	0.49	0.51
WACC / Discount Rate	6.68%	6.68%	6.68%
Growth Rate	1.87%	2.87%	3.87%
Fair Value	$9.42	$13.14	$19.03
Upside / Downside	-49.38%	-29.39%	2.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	221.19	227.54	234.08	240.80	247.72	254.84	262.48
Payout Ratio	31.43%	43.14%	54.86%	66.57%	78.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	69.52	98.17	128.41	160.31	193.93	229.36	242.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.68%	6.68%	6.68%
Growth Rate	1.87%	2.87%	3.87%
Year 1 PV (M)	91.13	92.03	92.92
Year 2 PV (M)	110.66	112.84	115.05
Year 3 PV (M)	128.25	132.06	135.95
Year 4 PV (M)	144.02	149.76	155.67
Year 5 PV (M)	158.12	166.03	174.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,554.60	4,782.58	5,019.59
Equity Value (M)	5,186.78	5,435.30	5,693.44
Shares Outstanding (M)	398.50	398.50	398.50
Fair Value	$13.02	$13.64	$14.29
Upside / Downside	-30.06%	-26.71%	-23.23%

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Hunan Aihua Group Co., Ltd (603989.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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