DDM Analysis: 603988.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.55 - $2.29	$1.90
Multi-Stage	$2.43 - $2.67	$2.55
Blended Fair Value	$2.22
Current Price	$28.09
Upside	-92.08%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-31.05%	0.00%	0.06	0.07	0.06	0.94	0.49	0.41	0.20	0.05	0.06	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	-8.81%	16.46%	-93.58%	89.25%	20.78%	108.45%	262.00%	-11.76%	-15.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.33%	0.74%	0.58%	9.13%	2.98%	4.74%	1.57%	0.33%	0.26%	0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	42.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	10.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)	32.43

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.50	5.31	3.19
Cash Retained (M)	32.43	32.43	32.43
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.50	-5.31	-3.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)	23.93	27.11	29.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	221.21	221.21	221.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.15	0.17	0.18
WACC / Discount Rate	8.75%	8.75%	8.75%
Growth Rate	-1.08%	-0.08%	0.92%
Fair Value	$1.55	$1.90	$2.29
Upside / Downside	-94.49%	-93.22%	-91.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	42.51	42.48	42.44	42.41	42.38	42.35	43.62
Payout Ratio	23.72%	36.97%	50.23%	63.49%	76.74%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	10.08	15.70	21.32	26.93	32.52	38.11	40.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.75%	8.75%	8.75%
Growth Rate	-1.08%	-0.08%	0.92%
Year 1 PV (M)	14.30	14.44	14.59
Year 2 PV (M)	17.67	18.03	18.39
Year 3 PV (M)	20.31	20.94	21.57
Year 4 PV (M)	22.34	23.25	24.20
Year 5 PV (M)	23.83	25.06	26.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)	438.77	461.40	484.96
Equity Value (M)	537.22	563.12	590.04
Shares Outstanding (M)	221.21	221.21	221.21
Fair Value	$2.43	$2.55	$2.67
Upside / Downside	-91.35%	-90.94%	-90.50%

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SEC Electric Machinery Co., Ltd. (603988.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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