DDM Analysis: 603960.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.42 - $7.25	$4.85
Multi-Stage	$2.50 - $2.73	$2.62
Blended Fair Value	$3.73
Current Price	$21.48
Upside	-82.62%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	21.96%	17.59%	0.15	0.08	0.06	0.16	0.12	0.05	0.07	0.05	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	81.46%	28.83%	-61.71%	31.06%	129.98%	-25.05%	51.07%	579.30%	-17.58%	-70.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.74%	0.26%	0.32%	0.83%	0.43%	0.26%	0.35%	0.35%	0.05%	0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	44.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)	34.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.81	5.51	3.30
Cash Retained (M)	34.71	34.71	34.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.81	-5.51	-3.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)	25.90	29.21	31.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	242.32	242.32	242.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.15	0.16	0.17
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$3.42	$4.85	$7.25
Upside / Downside	-84.10%	-77.41%	-66.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	44.05	46.91	49.96	53.21	56.67	60.35	62.16
Payout Ratio	21.20%	34.96%	48.72%	62.48%	76.24%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9.34	16.40	24.34	33.25	43.20	54.32	57.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	14.77	14.91	15.05
Year 2 PV (M)	19.74	20.12	20.50
Year 3 PV (M)	24.29	24.98	25.69
Year 4 PV (M)	28.43	29.52	30.64
Year 5 PV (M)	32.18	33.74	35.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)	487.31	510.85	535.29
Equity Value (M)	606.73	634.12	662.53
Shares Outstanding (M)	242.32	242.32	242.32
Fair Value	$2.50	$2.62	$2.73
Upside / Downside	-88.34%	-87.82%	-87.27%

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Shanghai Kelai Mechatronics Engineering Co.,Ltd. (603960.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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