DDM Analysis: 603915.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.89 - $10.68	$7.89
Multi-Stage	$9.91 - $10.88	$10.39
Blended Fair Value	$9.14
Current Price	$17.03
Upside	-46.35%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.33	0.20	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	59.02%	-5.90%	20.79%	25.64%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.88%	1.47%	1.11%	0.86%	0.54%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	270.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	157.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)	112.79

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	54.06	33.79	20.27
Cash Retained (M)	112.79	112.79	112.79
(-) Cash Required (M)	-54.06	-33.79	-20.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)	58.73	79.00	92.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	645.68	645.68	645.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.12	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.24	0.24	0.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.12	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.33	0.37	0.39
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	0.81%	1.81%	2.81%
Fair Value	$5.89	$7.89	$10.68
Upside / Downside	-65.39%	-53.69%	-37.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	270.32	275.21	280.19	285.27	290.43	295.69	304.56
Payout Ratio	58.27%	64.62%	70.96%	77.31%	83.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	157.53	177.84	198.84	220.54	242.96	266.12	281.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	0.81%	1.81%	2.81%
Year 1 PV (M)	165.28	166.92	168.56
Year 2 PV (M)	171.75	175.18	178.64
Year 3 PV (M)	177.05	182.37	187.80
Year 4 PV (M)	181.28	188.58	196.10
Year 5 PV (M)	184.54	193.88	203.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,519.58	5,798.83	6,089.26
Equity Value (M)	6,399.50	6,705.76	7,023.95
Shares Outstanding (M)	645.68	645.68	645.68
Fair Value	$9.91	$10.39	$10.88
Upside / Downside	-41.80%	-39.02%	-36.12%

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Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. (603915.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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