DDM Analysis: 603888.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.69 - $5.50	$4.55
Multi-Stage	$3.10 - $3.38	$3.24
Blended Fair Value	$3.89
Current Price	$19.76
Upside	-80.30%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.14%	12.70%	0.25	0.14	0.13	0.10	0.15	0.19	0.15	0.00	0.52	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	70.37%	14.72%	27.34%	-34.36%	-21.37%	24.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	425.91%	34.19%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.40%	0.77%	0.57%	0.74%	1.11%	1.13%	0.79%	0.00%	4.05%	1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	281.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	55.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)	225.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	56.31	35.19	21.12
Cash Retained (M)	225.70	225.70	225.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-56.31	-35.19	-21.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)	169.39	190.51	204.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	674.64	674.64	674.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.28	0.30
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.28	0.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.33	0.37	0.39
WACC / Discount Rate	15.05%	15.05%	15.05%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$3.69	$4.55	$5.50
Upside / Downside	-81.34%	-76.99%	-72.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	281.55	299.85	319.34	340.09	362.20	385.74	397.32
Payout Ratio	19.84%	33.87%	47.90%	61.93%	75.97%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	55.85	101.55	152.97	210.64	275.15	347.17	367.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	15.05%	15.05%	15.05%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	87.44	88.27	89.10
Year 2 PV (M)	113.40	115.56	117.74
Year 3 PV (M)	134.45	138.31	142.24
Year 4 PV (M)	151.22	157.04	163.02
Year 5 PV (M)	164.28	172.22	180.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,443.03	1,512.73	1,585.10
Equity Value (M)	2,093.82	2,184.12	2,277.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	674.64	674.64	674.64
Fair Value	$3.10	$3.24	$3.38
Upside / Downside	-84.29%	-83.62%	-82.91%

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Xinhuanet Co., Ltd. (603888.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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