DDM Analysis: 603810.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.56 - $0.73	$0.65
Multi-Stage	$1.40 - $1.56	$1.48
Blended Fair Value	$1.06
Current Price	$17.28
Upside	-93.85%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-31.86%	-15.34%	0.04	0.07	0.17	0.33	0.06	0.24	0.18	0.09	0.07	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	-53.03%	-54.71%	-50.49%	461.22%	-75.14%	29.49%	110.17%	19.64%	-16.69%	-52.54%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.29%	0.53%	1.04%	2.30%	0.30%	1.72%	0.85%	0.34%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	28.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)	19.06

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5.70	3.56	2.14
Cash Retained (M)	19.06	19.06	19.06
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5.70	-3.56	-2.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.36	15.50	16.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	176.04	176.04	176.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.10
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.13	0.14	0.15
WACC / Discount Rate	7.83%	7.83%	7.83%
Growth Rate	-12.55%	-11.55%	-10.55%
Fair Value	$0.56	$0.65	$0.73
Upside / Downside	-96.78%	-96.26%	-95.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	28.50	25.20	22.29	19.72	17.44	15.43	15.89
Payout Ratio	33.11%	44.49%	55.87%	67.25%	78.62%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9.44	11.21	12.45	13.26	13.71	13.88	14.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.83%	7.83%	7.83%
Growth Rate	-12.55%	-11.55%	-10.55%
Year 1 PV (M)	10.28	10.40	10.52
Year 2 PV (M)	10.47	10.71	10.96
Year 3 PV (M)	10.22	10.58	10.94
Year 4 PV (M)	9.69	10.14	10.61
Year 5 PV (M)	9.00	9.52	10.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	197.27	208.81	220.88
Equity Value (M)	246.93	260.16	273.98
Shares Outstanding (M)	176.04	176.04	176.04
Fair Value	$1.40	$1.48	$1.56
Upside / Downside	-91.88%	-91.45%	-90.99%

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Jiangsu Fengshan Group Co.,Ltd (603810.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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