DDM Analysis: 603800.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.90 - $7.86	$6.24
Multi-Stage	$10.04 - $11.05	$10.53
Blended Fair Value	$8.39
Current Price	$49.08
Upside	-82.91%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-13.12%	11.37%	0.29	0.31	0.09	0.10	0.59	0.59	0.16	0.00	0.12	0.26
YoY Growth	-	-	-6.65%	241.05%	-4.85%	-83.84%	1.16%	272.22%	0.00%	-100.00%	-54.58%	166.55%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.85%	1.31%	0.32%	0.36%	6.50%	4.60%	1.12%	0.00%	0.37%	0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	94.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	34.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	60.04

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	18.86	11.79	7.07
Cash Retained (M)	60.04	60.04	60.04
(-) Cash Required (M)	-18.86	-11.79	-7.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)	41.19	48.26	52.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	201.40	201.40	201.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.24	0.26
LTM Dividend per Share	0.17	0.17	0.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.24	0.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.37	0.41	0.43
WACC / Discount Rate	6.52%	6.52%	6.52%
Growth Rate	-1.04%	-0.04%	0.96%
Fair Value	$4.90	$6.24	$7.86
Upside / Downside	-90.01%	-87.28%	-83.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	94.29	94.25	94.21	94.17	94.13	94.09	96.91
Payout Ratio	36.32%	47.06%	57.79%	68.53%	79.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	34.25	44.35	54.45	64.53	74.61	84.68	89.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.52%	6.52%	6.52%
Growth Rate	-1.04%	-0.04%	0.96%
Year 1 PV (M)	41.22	41.64	42.05
Year 2 PV (M)	47.03	47.99	48.95
Year 3 PV (M)	51.81	53.40	55.02
Year 4 PV (M)	55.67	57.96	60.31
Year 5 PV (M)	58.73	61.75	64.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,767.60	1,858.74	1,953.59
Equity Value (M)	2,022.06	2,121.47	2,224.83
Shares Outstanding (M)	201.40	201.40	201.40
Fair Value	$10.04	$10.53	$11.05
Upside / Downside	-79.54%	-78.54%	-77.49%

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Jiangsu Hongtian Technology Co.,Ltd. (603800.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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