DDM Analysis: 603648.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.88 - $9.36	$6.67
Multi-Stage	$4.17 - $4.56	$4.36
Blended Fair Value	$5.52
Current Price	$10.90
Upside	-49.40%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	18.26%	6.34%	0.35	0.35	0.30	0.18	0.18	0.15	0.15	0.28	0.15	0.32
YoY Growth	-	-	0.81%	16.70%	63.84%	0.00%	20.00%	0.00%	-44.70%	88.88%	-54.19%	67.10%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.78%	3.67%	3.31%	2.00%	2.35%	1.77%	1.15%	1.54%	1.38%	3.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	109.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)	107.59

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	21.94	13.71	8.23
Cash Retained (M)	107.59	107.59	107.59
(-) Cash Required (M)	-21.94	-13.71	-8.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)	85.65	93.87	99.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	362.44	362.44	362.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.26	0.27
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.26	0.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.24	0.26	0.28
WACC / Discount Rate	9.52%	9.52%	9.52%
Growth Rate	4.34%	5.34%	6.34%
Fair Value	$4.88	$6.67	$9.36
Upside / Downside	-55.27%	-38.79%	-14.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	109.70	115.56	121.73	128.23	135.08	142.30	146.57
Payout Ratio	1.93%	19.54%	37.16%	54.77%	72.39%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2.12	22.58	45.23	70.24	97.78	128.07	135.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.52%	9.52%	9.52%
Growth Rate	4.34%	5.34%	6.34%
Year 1 PV (M)	20.43	20.62	20.82
Year 2 PV (M)	37.00	37.71	38.43
Year 3 PV (M)	51.95	53.46	55.00
Year 4 PV (M)	65.41	67.96	70.58
Year 5 PV (M)	77.48	81.27	85.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,257.61	1,319.04	1,382.84
Equity Value (M)	1,509.88	1,580.06	1,652.87
Shares Outstanding (M)	362.44	362.44	362.44
Fair Value	$4.17	$4.36	$4.56
Upside / Downside	-61.78%	-60.00%	-58.16%

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Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co., Ltd. (603648.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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