DDM Analysis: 603538.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.66 - $23.87	$14.44
Multi-Stage	$20.44 - $22.50	$21.45
Blended Fair Value	$17.95
Current Price	$21.75
Upside	-17.49%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-14.86%	8.51%	0.10	0.27	0.23	0.06	0.19	0.23	0.18	0.02	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	-61.66%	18.42%	261.65%	-66.67%	-18.27%	29.98%	795.57%	64.72%	44.49%	-81.74%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.73%	1.90%	0.90%	0.12%	0.87%	1.10%	1.24%	0.15%	0.10%	0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	99.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	33.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	65.51

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	19.90	12.44	7.46
Cash Retained (M)	65.51	65.51	65.51
(-) Cash Required (M)	-19.90	-12.44	-7.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)	45.62	53.08	58.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	217.81	217.81	217.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.24	0.27
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.24	0.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.37	0.40	0.42
WACC / Discount Rate	4.89%	4.89%	4.89%
Growth Rate	1.07%	2.07%	3.07%
Fair Value	$9.66	$14.44	$23.87
Upside / Downside	-55.60%	-33.60%	9.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	99.48	101.54	103.64	105.79	107.98	110.21	113.52
Payout Ratio	34.15%	45.32%	56.49%	67.66%	78.83%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	33.97	46.01	58.55	71.57	85.12	99.19	105.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.89%	4.89%	4.89%
Growth Rate	1.07%	2.07%	3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)	43.44	43.87	44.30
Year 2 PV (M)	52.17	53.21	54.26
Year 3 PV (M)	60.21	62.02	63.86
Year 4 PV (M)	67.59	70.31	73.11
Year 5 PV (M)	74.36	78.11	82.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,154.82	4,364.47	4,582.50
Equity Value (M)	4,452.59	4,671.98	4,900.03
Shares Outstanding (M)	217.81	217.81	217.81
Fair Value	$20.44	$21.45	$22.50
Upside / Downside	-6.01%	-1.38%	3.43%

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Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603538.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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