DDM Analysis: 603315.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.45 - $29.92	$28.04
Multi-Stage	$4.29 - $4.69	$4.49
Blended Fair Value	$16.26
Current Price	$13.34
Upside	21.92%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	69.60%	-2.56%	0.15	0.08	0.07	0.15	0.16	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.06	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	77.01%	26.72%	-55.19%	-9.09%	1,435.47%	0.00%	-72.51%	-40.00%	-22.35%	-57.07%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.10%	0.63%	0.45%	0.61%	1.25%	0.10%	0.07%	0.31%	0.27%	0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	47.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	20.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)	26.65

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.47	5.92	3.55
Cash Retained (M)	26.65	26.65	26.65
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.47	-5.92	-3.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17.18	20.73	23.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	314.75	314.75	314.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.12	0.13	0.14
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%	6.61%	6.61%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$11.45	$28.04	$29.92
Upside / Downside	-14.19%	110.21%	124.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	47.36	50.43	53.71	57.20	60.92	64.88	66.83
Payout Ratio	43.72%	52.98%	62.23%	71.49%	80.74%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	20.71	26.72	33.43	40.89	49.19	58.39	61.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%	6.61%	6.61%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	24.83	25.06	25.30
Year 2 PV (M)	28.86	29.41	29.97
Year 3 PV (M)	32.81	33.75	34.71
Year 4 PV (M)	36.67	38.08	39.53
Year 5 PV (M)	40.45	42.40	44.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,186.37	1,243.67	1,303.17
Equity Value (M)	1,349.99	1,412.38	1,477.10
Shares Outstanding (M)	314.75	314.75	314.75
Fair Value	$4.29	$4.49	$4.69
Upside / Downside	-67.85%	-66.36%	-64.82%

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Sector

Liaoning Fu-An Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (603315.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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