DDM Analysis: 603167.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.85 - $26.59	$17.16
Multi-Stage	$15.38 - $16.87	$16.11
Blended Fair Value	$16.64
Current Price	$9.42
Upside	76.60%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.29%	18.10%	0.81	0.16	0.20	0.18	0.48	0.65	0.46	0.28	0.18	0.22
YoY Growth	-	-	397.25%	-17.67%	10.54%	-63.00%	-26.31%	42.79%	61.51%	56.25%	-16.57%	42.32%
Dividend Yield	-	-	9.54%	1.83%	2.69%	2.35%	5.55%	8.36%	4.30%	2.74%	1.67%	2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	288.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	104.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)	184.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	57.78	36.11	21.67
Cash Retained (M)	184.70	184.70	184.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-57.78	-36.11	-21.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)	126.92	148.59	163.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	473.38	473.38	473.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.31	0.34
LTM Dividend per Share	0.22	0.22	0.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.31	0.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.49	0.53	0.56
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	2.29%	3.29%	4.29%
Fair Value	$11.85	$17.16	$26.59
Upside / Downside	25.81%	82.18%	182.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	288.89	298.41	308.24	318.39	328.87	339.70	349.89
Payout Ratio	36.07%	46.85%	57.64%	68.43%	79.21%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	104.19	139.81	177.67	217.86	260.51	305.73	323.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	2.29%	3.29%	4.29%
Year 1 PV (M)	130.00	131.27	132.54
Year 2 PV (M)	153.60	156.62	159.67
Year 3 PV (M)	175.13	180.32	185.61
Year 4 PV (M)	194.72	202.44	210.40
Year 5 PV (M)	212.48	223.07	234.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,413.00	6,732.65	7,064.92
Equity Value (M)	7,278.93	7,626.37	7,987.21
Shares Outstanding (M)	473.38	473.38	473.38
Fair Value	$15.38	$16.11	$16.87
Upside / Downside	63.23%	71.02%	79.12%

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Bohai Ferry Group Co., Ltd. (603167.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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