DDM Analysis: 603038.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.26 - $8.96	$5.04
Multi-Stage	$8.20 - $9.02	$8.60
Blended Fair Value	$6.82
Current Price	$17.43
Upside	-60.88%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.34%	48.65%	0.12	0.11	0.11	0.13	0.14	0.13	0.08	0.12	0.11	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	3.97%	8.74%	-16.24%	-10.09%	9.82%	62.46%	-37.20%	17.17%	1,784.72%	150.08%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.83%	1.14%	1.72%	1.71%	1.42%	1.60%	0.95%	1.17%	0.61%	0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	35.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	30.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4.96

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7.00	4.38	2.63
Cash Retained (M)	4.96	4.96	4.96
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7.00	-4.38	-2.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-2.04	0.59	2.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	248.08	248.08	248.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.11	0.12	0.13
WACC / Discount Rate	4.49%	4.49%	4.49%
Growth Rate	0.98%	1.98%	2.98%
Fair Value	$3.26	$5.04	$8.96
Upside / Downside	-81.31%	-71.11%	-48.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	35.02	35.71	36.42	37.14	37.88	38.63	39.79
Payout Ratio	85.83%	86.66%	87.50%	88.33%	89.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	30.05	30.95	31.87	32.81	33.78	34.77	36.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.49%	4.49%	4.49%
Growth Rate	0.98%	1.98%	2.98%
Year 1 PV (M)	29.33	29.62	29.91
Year 2 PV (M)	28.62	29.19	29.77
Year 3 PV (M)	27.93	28.76	29.62
Year 4 PV (M)	27.24	28.34	29.47
Year 5 PV (M)	26.58	27.92	29.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,894.26	1,989.93	2,089.42
Equity Value (M)	2,033.96	2,133.76	2,237.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	248.08	248.08	248.08
Fair Value	$8.20	$8.60	$9.02
Upside / Downside	-52.96%	-50.65%	-48.25%

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Dongguan Huali Industries Co.,Ltd (603038.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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