DDM Analysis: 603004.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.85 - $17.32	$13.03
Multi-Stage	$17.84 - $19.62	$18.71
Blended Fair Value	$15.87
Current Price	$24.04
Upside	-33.99%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	53.50%	0.00%	0.22	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	5,930.37%	-75.75%	-4.23%	12.46%	-45.90%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.06%	0.02%	0.09%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	177.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	56.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)	121.44

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	35.58	22.24	13.34
Cash Retained (M)	121.44	121.44	121.44
(-) Cash Required (M)	-35.58	-22.24	-13.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)	85.86	99.21	108.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	238.36	238.36	238.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.36	0.42	0.45
LTM Dividend per Share	0.24	0.24	0.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.36	0.42	0.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.60	0.65	0.69
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	0.28%	1.28%	2.28%
Fair Value	$9.85	$13.03	$17.32
Upside / Downside	-59.02%	-45.82%	-27.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	177.89	180.17	182.47	184.80	187.16	189.55	195.23
Payout Ratio	31.73%	43.39%	55.04%	66.69%	78.35%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	56.45	78.17	100.43	123.25	146.63	170.59	180.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	0.28%	1.28%	2.28%
Year 1 PV (M)	72.77	73.50	74.22
Year 2 PV (M)	87.04	88.79	90.55
Year 3 PV (M)	99.44	102.45	105.51
Year 4 PV (M)	110.14	114.60	119.20
Year 5 PV (M)	119.30	125.36	131.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,764.42	3,955.91	4,155.10
Equity Value (M)	4,253.12	4,460.61	4,676.26
Shares Outstanding (M)	238.36	238.36	238.36
Fair Value	$17.84	$18.71	$19.62
Upside / Downside	-25.78%	-22.16%	-18.39%

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Zhejiang Dragon Technology Co., Ltd. (603004.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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