DDM Analysis: 601999.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.33 - $1.87	$1.60
Multi-Stage	$2.56 - $2.82	$2.69
Blended Fair Value	$2.14
Current Price	$6.93
Upside	-69.07%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-8.74%	5.97%	0.06	0.04	0.06	0.08	0.07	0.10	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	47.60%	-25.55%	-26.42%	5.02%	-25.45%	25.00%	87.23%	0.36%	9.45%	9.71%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.00%	0.62%	0.77%	1.16%	1.26%	1.52%	1.14%	0.56%	0.39%	0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	135.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	24.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)	110.54

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	27.06	16.91	10.15
Cash Retained (M)	110.54	110.54	110.54
(-) Cash Required (M)	-27.06	-16.91	-10.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	83.48	93.62	100.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	623.78	623.78	623.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.16
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.17	0.19	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	8.29%	8.29%	8.29%
Growth Rate	-4.19%	-3.19%	-2.19%
Fair Value	$1.33	$1.60	$1.87
Upside / Downside	-80.78%	-76.91%	-72.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	135.28	130.96	126.78	122.73	118.82	115.02	118.47
Payout Ratio	18.29%	32.63%	46.98%	61.32%	75.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	24.75	42.74	59.56	75.26	89.89	103.52	109.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.29%	8.29%	8.29%
Growth Rate	-4.19%	-3.19%	-2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)	39.06	39.47	39.87
Year 2 PV (M)	49.74	50.79	51.84
Year 3 PV (M)	57.45	59.27	61.12
Year 4 PV (M)	62.72	65.38	68.12
Year 5 PV (M)	66.01	69.52	73.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,321.43	1,391.85	1,465.23
Equity Value (M)	1,596.40	1,676.27	1,759.38
Shares Outstanding (M)	623.78	623.78	623.78
Fair Value	$2.56	$2.69	$2.82
Upside / Downside	-63.07%	-61.22%	-59.30%

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Northern United Publishing & Media (Group) Company Limited (601999.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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