DDM Analysis: 601965.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.43 - $9.09	$7.74
Multi-Stage	$5.35 - $5.82	$5.58
Blended Fair Value	$6.66
Current Price	$17.88
Upside	-62.75%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.25%	10.88%	0.36	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.25	0.25	0.20	0.15	0.10	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	19.67%	1.53%	-0.11%	20.10%	1.96%	25.03%	34.60%	47.55%	52.16%	-49.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.93%	1.52%	1.22%	2.08%	1.66%	2.74%	2.27%	1.75%	0.96%	0.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	904.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	104.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	800.03

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	180.81	113.00	67.80
Cash Retained (M)	800.03	800.03	800.03
(-) Cash Required (M)	-180.81	-113.00	-67.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)	619.22	687.03	732.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	989.95	989.95	989.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.63	0.69	0.74
LTM Dividend per Share	0.11	0.11	0.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.63	0.69	0.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.73	0.80	0.84
WACC / Discount Rate	17.49%	17.49%	17.49%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$6.43	$7.74	$9.09
Upside / Downside	-64.06%	-56.70%	-49.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	904.03	962.79	1,025.37	1,092.02	1,163.00	1,238.60	1,275.76
Payout Ratio	11.50%	27.20%	42.90%	58.60%	74.30%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	104.00	261.91	439.91	639.94	864.12	1,114.74	1,180.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	17.49%	17.49%	17.49%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	220.82	222.92	225.01
Year 2 PV (M)	312.72	318.67	324.68
Year 3 PV (M)	383.55	394.56	405.78
Year 4 PV (M)	436.66	453.46	470.73
Year 5 PV (M)	474.94	497.88	521.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,469.24	3,636.81	3,810.79
Equity Value (M)	5,297.94	5,524.29	5,758.69
Shares Outstanding (M)	989.95	989.95	989.95
Fair Value	$5.35	$5.58	$5.82
Upside / Downside	-70.07%	-68.79%	-67.47%

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China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. (601965.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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