DDM Analysis: 601949.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.18 - $7.44	$5.56
Multi-Stage	$3.85 - $4.22	$4.03
Blended Fair Value	$4.79
Current Price	$6.74
Upside	-28.86%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.44%	13.48%	0.15	0.11	0.13	0.12	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.05	0.07	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	45.74%	-17.08%	4.34%	5.73%	17.76%	12.92%	79.35%	-30.01%	152.45%	-36.98%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.26%	1.29%	2.08%	2.41%	1.50%	1.88%	1.46%	0.74%	1.43%	0.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	569.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	17.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	552.01

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	113.82	71.14	42.68
Cash Retained (M)	552.01	552.01	552.01
(-) Cash Required (M)	-113.82	-71.14	-42.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)	438.18	480.87	509.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,904.64	1,904.64	1,904.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.25	0.27
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.25	0.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.24	0.26	0.28
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	3.85%	4.85%	5.85%
Fair Value	$4.18	$5.56	$7.44
Upside / Downside	-37.94%	-17.58%	10.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	569.11	596.70	625.63	655.96	687.76	721.11	742.74
Payout Ratio	3.01%	20.40%	37.80%	55.20%	72.60%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	17.10	121.75	236.51	362.11	499.32	649.00	687.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	3.85%	4.85%	5.85%
Year 1 PV (M)	109.85	110.90	111.96
Year 2 PV (M)	192.51	196.24	200.00
Year 3 PV (M)	265.92	273.68	281.58
Year 4 PV (M)	330.83	343.76	357.06
Year 5 PV (M)	387.94	406.98	426.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,054.95	6,352.15	6,660.91
Equity Value (M)	7,342.00	7,683.71	8,038.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,904.64	1,904.64	1,904.64
Fair Value	$3.85	$4.03	$4.22
Upside / Downside	-42.81%	-40.15%	-37.38%

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China Publishing & Media Holdings Co., Ltd. (601949.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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