DDM Analysis: 601869.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$67.39 - $150.54	$141.08
Multi-Stage	$23.30 - $25.46	$24.36
Blended Fair Value	$82.72
Current Price	$100.84
Upside	-17.97%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	15.51%	-3.80%	0.51	0.76	0.28	0.22	0.32	0.25	0.57	0.31	0.16	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	-32.43%	170.70%	30.09%	-32.08%	27.20%	-56.31%	86.29%	96.14%	11.81%	-81.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.52%	2.55%	0.68%	0.81%	1.36%	0.79%	1.22%	0.80%	0.41%	0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	572.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	508.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)	64.03

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	114.52	71.58	42.95
Cash Retained (M)	64.03	64.03	64.03
(-) Cash Required (M)	-114.52	-71.58	-42.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-50.49	-7.55	21.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	756.47	756.47	756.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.07	-0.01	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.67	0.67	0.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.07	-0.01	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.61	0.66	0.70
WACC / Discount Rate	6.45%	6.45%	6.45%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$67.39	$141.08	$150.54
Upside / Downside	-33.17%	39.90%	49.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	572.62	609.84	649.48	691.70	736.66	784.54	808.07
Payout Ratio	88.82%	89.05%	89.29%	89.53%	89.76%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	508.59	543.09	579.93	619.26	661.25	706.08	747.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.45%	6.45%	6.45%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	505.40	510.19	514.98
Year 2 PV (M)	502.23	511.80	521.45
Year 3 PV (M)	499.08	513.40	528.00
Year 4 PV (M)	495.94	515.01	534.63
Year 5 PV (M)	492.82	516.62	541.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)	15,130.66	15,861.48	16,620.26
Equity Value (M)	17,626.12	18,428.50	19,260.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	756.47	756.47	756.47
Fair Value	$23.30	$24.36	$25.46
Upside / Downside	-76.89%	-75.84%	-74.75%

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Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company (601869.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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