DDM Analysis: 601816.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$41.78 - $49.29	$46.16
Multi-Stage	$33.03 - $36.52	$34.74
Blended Fair Value	$40.45
Current Price	$5.13
Upside	688.49%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-14.88%	0.00%	0.15	0.07	0.11	0.11	0.13	0.35	0.16	0.12	0.06	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	130.65%	-41.06%	7.49%	-16.52%	-63.37%	122.19%	30.09%	110.26%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.77%	1.32%	2.17%	2.21%	2.16%	5.57%	2.29%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	13,055.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,077.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11,978.28

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,611.06	1,631.91	979.15
Cash Retained (M)	11,978.28	11,978.28	11,978.28
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,611.06	-1,631.91	-979.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	9,367.23	10,346.37	10,999.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	49,000.91	49,000.91	49,000.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.21	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.21	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.21	0.23	0.25
WACC / Discount Rate	-6.51%	-6.51%	-6.51%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$41.78	$46.16	$49.29
Upside / Downside	714.35%	799.78%	860.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	13,055.28	12,924.73	12,795.48	12,667.53	12,540.85	12,415.44	12,787.91
Payout Ratio	8.25%	24.60%	40.95%	57.30%	73.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,077.00	3,179.43	5,239.71	7,258.47	9,236.32	11,173.90	11,828.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-6.51%	-6.51%	-6.51%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,366.50	3,400.86	3,435.21
Year 2 PV (M)	5,874.44	5,994.94	6,116.66
Year 3 PV (M)	8,616.55	8,883.02	9,154.93
Year 4 PV (M)	11,609.59	12,090.75	12,586.72
Year 5 PV (M)	14,871.40	15,645.79	16,452.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,574,302.71	1,656,280.30	1,741,637.89
Equity Value (M)	1,618,641.18	1,702,295.65	1,789,383.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	49,000.91	49,000.91	49,000.91
Fair Value	$33.03	$34.74	$36.52
Upside / Downside	543.92%	577.19%	611.84%

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Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co.,Ltd. (601816.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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