DDM Analysis: 601633.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$61.75 - $254.72	$159.00
Multi-Stage	$30.35 - $33.20	$31.75
Blended Fair Value	$95.37
Current Price	$24.60
Upside	287.70%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.40%	2.93%	0.39	0.42	0.14	0.69	0.30	0.33	0.24	0.39	0.20	0.38
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.45%	188.66%	-79.15%	131.57%	-10.31%	38.58%	-38.96%	92.52%	-45.67%	27.66%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.51%	1.75%	0.52%	2.52%	0.99%	3.74%	2.98%	3.45%	1.62%	4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	10,899.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,852.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)	8,046.88

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,179.81	1,362.38	817.43
Cash Retained (M)	8,046.88	8,046.88	8,046.88
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,179.81	-1,362.38	-817.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5,867.07	6,684.49	7,229.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8,509.56	8,509.56	8,509.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.69	0.79	0.85
LTM Dividend per Share	0.34	0.34	0.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.69	0.79	0.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.02	1.12	1.18
WACC / Discount Rate	7.25%	7.25%	7.25%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$61.75	$159.00	$254.72
Upside / Downside	151.01%	546.34%	935.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	10,899.05	11,607.49	12,361.98	13,165.51	14,021.26	14,932.65	15,380.63
Payout Ratio	26.17%	38.94%	51.70%	64.47%	77.23%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,852.18	4,519.40	6,391.32	8,487.49	10,829.16	13,439.38	14,227.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.25%	7.25%	7.25%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,174.30	4,213.87	4,253.44
Year 2 PV (M)	5,452.51	5,556.36	5,661.20
Year 3 PV (M)	6,687.87	6,879.85	7,075.48
Year 4 PV (M)	7,881.45	8,184.55	8,496.30
Year 5 PV (M)	9,034.28	9,470.64	9,923.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)	224,995.25	235,862.60	247,145.88
Equity Value (M)	258,225.66	270,167.87	282,555.99
Shares Outstanding (M)	8,509.56	8,509.56	8,509.56
Fair Value	$30.35	$31.75	$33.20
Upside / Downside	23.36%	29.06%	34.98%

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Great Wall Motor Company Limited (601633.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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