DDM Analysis: 601568.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.32 - $0.45	$0.38
Multi-Stage	$0.46 - $0.51	$0.48
Blended Fair Value	$0.43
Current Price	$3.91
Upside	-88.91%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-11.11%	0.00%	0.09	0.53	0.30	0.21	0.12	0.17	0.14	0.08	0.07	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-82.01%	77.04%	39.17%	73.56%	-27.87%	18.49%	84.04%	6.44%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.37%	11.67%	5.20%	3.23%	1.48%	1.33%	1.12%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	204.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)	201.91

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	40.96	25.60	15.36
Cash Retained (M)	201.91	201.91	201.91
(-) Cash Required (M)	-40.96	-25.60	-15.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)	160.95	176.31	186.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,217.65	4,217.65	4,217.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.04	0.04	0.04
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$0.32	$0.38	$0.45
Upside / Downside	-91.87%	-90.19%	-88.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	204.79	202.74	200.72	198.71	196.72	194.75	200.60
Payout Ratio	1.41%	19.13%	36.85%	54.56%	72.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2.89	38.78	73.95	108.42	142.19	175.28	185.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	34.91	35.26	35.62
Year 2 PV (M)	59.92	61.15	62.40
Year 3 PV (M)	79.08	81.53	84.02
Year 4 PV (M)	93.36	97.23	101.22
Year 5 PV (M)	103.59	108.99	114.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,573.50	1,655.44	1,740.75
Equity Value (M)	1,944.37	2,039.60	2,138.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,217.65	4,217.65	4,217.65
Fair Value	$0.46	$0.48	$0.51
Upside / Downside	-88.21%	-87.63%	-87.03%

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Shaanxi Beiyuan Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. (601568.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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