DDM Analysis: 600961.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.53 - $17.11	$13.48
Multi-Stage	$14.90 - $16.37	$15.62
Blended Fair Value	$14.55
Current Price	$16.23
Upside	-10.34%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-10.40%	-5.71%	0.12	0.15	0.21	0.17	0.19	0.20	0.19	0.00	0.18	0.21
YoY Growth	-	-	-23.32%	-29.17%	22.91%	-7.28%	-6.72%	7.70%	0.00%	-100.00%	-12.82%	0.42%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.21%	1.32%	2.56%	1.81%	3.02%	3.49%	1.81%	0.00%	1.65%	2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,062.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	96.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)	966.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	212.58	132.86	79.72
Cash Retained (M)	966.40	966.40	966.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-212.58	-132.86	-79.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)	753.82	833.54	886.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,113.35	1,113.35	1,113.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.68	0.75	0.80
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.68	0.75	0.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.76	0.84	0.88
WACC / Discount Rate	8.03%	8.03%	8.03%
Growth Rate	0.72%	1.72%	2.72%
Fair Value	$10.53	$13.48	$17.11
Upside / Downside	-35.10%	-16.93%	5.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,062.92	1,081.24	1,099.89	1,118.85	1,138.14	1,157.76	1,192.50
Payout Ratio	9.08%	25.26%	41.45%	57.63%	73.82%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	96.51	273.17	455.88	644.82	840.13	1,041.99	1,103.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.03%	8.03%	8.03%
Growth Rate	0.72%	1.72%	2.72%
Year 1 PV (M)	250.38	252.87	255.35
Year 2 PV (M)	383.00	390.65	398.36
Year 3 PV (M)	496.55	511.49	526.72
Year 4 PV (M)	592.99	616.90	641.51
Year 5 PV (M)	674.13	708.26	743.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,195.07	14,913.85	15,661.46
Equity Value (M)	16,592.13	17,394.01	18,227.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,113.35	1,113.35	1,113.35
Fair Value	$14.90	$15.62	$16.37
Upside / Downside	-8.18%	-3.74%	0.87%

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Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co.,Ltd. (600961.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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