DDM Analysis: 600918.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.70 - $4.38	$3.45
Multi-Stage	$5.11 - $5.61	$5.36
Blended Fair Value	$4.41
Current Price	$6.95
Upside	-36.60%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.30%	29.94%	0.35	0.34	0.38	0.39	0.31	0.37	0.34	0.37	0.38	0.15
YoY Growth	-	-	1.79%	-9.31%	-3.60%	24.39%	-15.39%	9.75%	-7.64%	-4.43%	156.70%	489.27%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.40%	5.07%	5.61%	4.78%	2.35%	5.87%	5.35%	5.79%	6.06%	2.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,734.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,182.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)	551.66

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	346.92	216.83	130.10
Cash Retained (M)	551.66	551.66	551.66
(-) Cash Required (M)	-346.92	-216.83	-130.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)	204.74	334.83	421.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	6,956.89	6,956.89	6,956.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.05	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.17	0.17	0.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.05	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.20	0.22	0.23
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	-0.48%	0.52%	1.52%
Fair Value	$2.70	$3.45	$4.38
Upside / Downside	-61.14%	-50.31%	-37.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,734.61	1,743.63	1,752.69	1,761.81	1,770.96	1,780.17	1,833.58
Payout Ratio	68.20%	72.56%	76.92%	81.28%	85.64%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,182.95	1,265.13	1,348.14	1,431.97	1,516.64	1,602.15	1,696.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	-0.48%	0.52%	1.52%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,172.02	1,183.80	1,195.58
Year 2 PV (M)	1,157.00	1,180.37	1,203.98
Year 3 PV (M)	1,138.51	1,173.17	1,208.53
Year 4 PV (M)	1,117.08	1,162.66	1,209.62
Year 5 PV (M)	1,093.21	1,149.25	1,207.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)	29,900.46	31,433.19	33,028.15
Equity Value (M)	35,578.29	37,282.45	39,053.42
Shares Outstanding (M)	6,956.89	6,956.89	6,956.89
Fair Value	$5.11	$5.36	$5.61
Upside / Downside	-26.42%	-22.89%	-19.23%

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Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd. (600918.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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