DDM Analysis: 600895.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$27.24 - $135.95	$56.99
Multi-Stage	$21.30 - $23.33	$22.30
Blended Fair Value	$39.64
Current Price	$54.95
Upside	-27.86%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.31%	6.96%	0.78	0.16	0.53	0.36	0.36	0.32	0.28	0.36	0.29	0.29
YoY Growth	-	-	394.30%	-70.24%	49.37%	-2.02%	12.32%	15.58%	-22.91%	26.75%	-2.61%	-26.31%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.14%	0.78%	3.22%	2.59%	2.17%	2.66%	1.20%	2.69%	1.66%	1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,087.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	721.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)	366.06

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	217.60	136.00	81.60
Cash Retained (M)	366.06	366.06	366.06
(-) Cash Required (M)	-217.60	-136.00	-81.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	148.47	230.06	284.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,570.49	1,570.49	1,570.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.15	0.18
LTM Dividend per Share	0.46	0.46	0.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.15	0.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.55	0.61	0.64
WACC / Discount Rate	6.19%	6.19%	6.19%
Growth Rate	4.08%	5.08%	6.08%
Fair Value	$27.24	$56.99	$135.95
Upside / Downside	-50.43%	3.71%	147.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,087.98	1,143.21	1,201.25	1,262.23	1,326.31	1,393.64	1,435.45
Payout Ratio	66.35%	71.08%	75.81%	80.54%	85.27%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	721.91	812.63	910.69	1,016.62	1,130.96	1,254.28	1,327.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.19%	6.19%	6.19%
Growth Rate	4.08%	5.08%	6.08%
Year 1 PV (M)	757.94	765.23	772.51
Year 2 PV (M)	792.25	807.55	822.99
Year 3 PV (M)	824.89	848.90	873.36
Year 4 PV (M)	855.91	889.28	923.62
Year 5 PV (M)	885.36	928.72	973.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)	29,340.71	30,777.63	32,270.30
Equity Value (M)	33,457.06	35,017.30	36,636.55
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,570.49	1,570.49	1,570.49
Fair Value	$21.30	$22.30	$23.33
Upside / Downside	-61.23%	-59.42%	-57.55%

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Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park Development Co., Ltd. (600895.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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