DDM Analysis: 600839.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.11 - $10.46	$7.16
Multi-Stage	$7.40 - $8.13	$7.76
Blended Fair Value	$7.46
Current Price	$10.47
Upside	-28.75%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.25%	3.73%	0.22	0.23	0.18	0.01	0.25	0.32	0.30	0.21	0.11	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	-3.47%	23.84%	1,733.96%	-95.92%	-23.24%	8.18%	39.34%	85.39%	27.53%	-41.05%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.13%	4.03%	3.89%	0.34%	9.46%	11.78%	8.02%	6.77%	2.69%	2.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,366.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	494.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)	872.34

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	273.36	170.85	102.51
Cash Retained (M)	872.34	872.34	872.34
(-) Cash Required (M)	-273.36	-170.85	-102.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)	598.98	701.49	769.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,617.85	4,617.85	4,617.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.11	0.11	0.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.24	0.26	0.27
WACC / Discount Rate	6.44%	6.44%	6.44%
Growth Rate	1.73%	2.73%	3.73%
Fair Value	$5.11	$7.16	$10.46
Upside / Downside	-51.20%	-31.59%	-0.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,366.79	1,404.10	1,442.43	1,481.81	1,522.27	1,563.82	1,610.74
Payout Ratio	36.18%	46.94%	57.71%	68.47%	79.24%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	494.45	659.10	832.37	1,014.60	1,206.17	1,407.44	1,489.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.44%	6.44%	6.44%
Growth Rate	1.73%	2.73%	3.73%
Year 1 PV (M)	613.17	619.19	625.22
Year 2 PV (M)	720.40	734.63	749.00
Year 3 PV (M)	816.92	841.25	866.06
Year 4 PV (M)	903.49	939.54	976.66
Year 5 PV (M)	980.78	1,029.95	1,081.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)	30,142.78	31,653.70	33,224.61
Equity Value (M)	34,177.54	35,818.26	37,522.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,617.85	4,617.85	4,617.85
Fair Value	$7.40	$7.76	$8.13
Upside / Downside	-29.31%	-25.92%	-22.39%

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Sichuan Changhong Electric Co.,Ltd. (600839.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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