DDM Analysis: 600834.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.55 - $13.64	$12.77
Multi-Stage	$8.81 - $9.77	$9.28
Blended Fair Value	$11.02
Current Price	$8.64
Upside	27.59%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-4.23%	-3.36%	0.09	0.11	0.08	0.13	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.10	0.09	0.12
YoY Growth	-	-	-11.56%	30.37%	-36.55%	-10.03%	22.39%	21.54%	0.37%	9.84%	-24.96%	-12.24%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.17%	1.46%	0.97%	1.51%	1.57%	1.87%	1.16%	1.06%	0.59%	0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	35.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	20.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)	15.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7.13	4.46	2.67
Cash Retained (M)	15.56	15.56	15.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7.13	-4.46	-2.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8.43	11.11	12.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	467.40	467.40	467.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.06	0.07	0.07
WACC / Discount Rate	-8.24%	-8.24%	-8.24%
Growth Rate	-5.36%	-4.36%	-3.36%
Fair Value	$11.55	$12.77	$13.64
Upside / Downside	33.71%	47.79%	57.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	35.66	34.11	32.62	31.20	29.84	28.54	29.40
Payout Ratio	56.35%	63.08%	69.81%	76.54%	83.27%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	20.09	21.51	22.77	23.88	24.85	25.69	27.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-8.24%	-8.24%	-8.24%
Growth Rate	-5.36%	-4.36%	-3.36%
Year 1 PV (M)	23.20	23.45	23.69
Year 2 PV (M)	26.48	27.05	27.62
Year 3 PV (M)	29.95	30.91	31.89
Year 4 PV (M)	33.61	35.05	36.54
Year 5 PV (M)	37.47	39.49	41.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,966.34	4,180.35	4,403.50
Equity Value (M)	4,117.05	4,336.30	4,564.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	467.40	467.40	467.40
Fair Value	$8.81	$9.28	$9.77
Upside / Downside	1.95%	7.38%	13.04%

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Shanghai Shentong Metro Co.,Ltd. (600834.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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