Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited (600760.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.58 - $40.92$27.65
Multi-Stage$14.76 - $16.10$15.42
Blended Fair Value$21.53
Current Price$71.83
Upside-70.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS115.85%33.09%0.400.290.250.160.080.010.010.030.020.02
YoY Growth--39.94%13.97%52.25%116.01%793.23%19.53%-72.18%3.88%10.28%-2.32%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.78%0.65%0.41%0.23%0.06%0.04%0.15%0.14%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,937.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,103.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,834.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)587.55367.22220.33
Cash Retained (M)1,834.661,834.661,834.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-587.55-367.22-220.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,247.111,467.441,614.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,761.992,761.992,761.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.530.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.530.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.98
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.58$27.65$40.92
Upside / Downside-72.74%-61.51%-43.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,937.743,128.693,332.053,548.643,779.304,024.954,145.70
Payout Ratio37.55%48.04%58.53%69.02%79.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,103.081,502.991,950.222,449.253,004.913,622.463,834.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,352.481,365.301,378.12
Year 2 PV (M)1,579.191,609.271,639.64
Year 3 PV (M)1,784.681,835.911,888.11
Year 4 PV (M)1,970.312,046.082,124.02
Year 5 PV (M)2,137.382,240.622,347.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,937.1133,479.6835,081.30
Equity Value (M)40,761.1642,576.8744,458.99
Shares Outstanding (M)2,761.992,761.992,761.99
Fair Value$14.76$15.42$16.10
Upside / Downside-79.45%-78.54%-77.59%

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