DDM Analysis: 600737.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$66.56 - $127.02	$119.04
Multi-Stage	$19.81 - $21.69	$20.74
Blended Fair Value	$69.89
Current Price	$15.95
Upside	338.16%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	44.92%	40.42%	0.86	0.50	0.11	0.08	0.12	0.13	0.16	0.12	0.03	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	71.54%	354.55%	37.50%	-36.00%	-6.84%	-17.72%	30.77%	271.43%	16.67%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	8.93%	5.04%	1.36%	0.94%	1.31%	1.47%	1.79%	1.62%	0.30%	0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,366.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	478.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)	887.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	273.26	170.79	102.47
Cash Retained (M)	887.76	887.76	887.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-273.26	-170.79	-102.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)	614.49	716.97	785.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,139.22	2,139.22	2,139.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.34	0.37
LTM Dividend per Share	0.22	0.22	0.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.34	0.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.51	0.56	0.59
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$66.56	$119.04	$127.02
Upside / Downside	317.33%	646.32%	696.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,366.32	1,455.13	1,549.71	1,650.44	1,757.72	1,871.98	1,928.13
Payout Ratio	35.03%	46.02%	57.02%	68.01%	79.01%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	478.56	669.66	883.57	1,122.47	1,388.69	1,684.78	1,783.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	624.00	629.91	635.83
Year 2 PV (M)	767.19	781.80	796.55
Year 3 PV (M)	908.16	934.23	960.80
Year 4 PV (M)	1,046.94	1,087.21	1,128.62
Year 5 PV (M)	1,183.56	1,240.72	1,300.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)	37,854.57	39,682.96	41,581.33
Equity Value (M)	42,384.42	44,356.83	46,403.20
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,139.22	2,139.22	2,139.22
Fair Value	$19.81	$20.74	$21.69
Upside / Downside	24.22%	30.00%	36.00%

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Financial Statements

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Cofco Sugar Holding CO.,LTD. (600737.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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