DDM Analysis: 600664.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$17.16 - $33.93	$31.79
Multi-Stage	$7.31 - $8.02	$7.66
Blended Fair Value	$19.72
Current Price	$3.57
Upside	452.49%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	35.43%	-10.60%	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.52	0.52	0.03	0.74
YoY Growth	-	-	6.68%	-18.69%	-11.77%	333.04%	37.47%	-99.23%	0.36%	1,511.47%	-95.66%	1,233.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.49%	0.56%	0.67%	0.67%	0.20%	0.10%	8.07%	9.91%	0.42%	9.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	449.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	21.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	427.66

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	89.83	56.14	33.69
Cash Retained (M)	427.66	427.66	427.66
(-) Cash Required (M)	-89.83	-56.14	-33.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)	337.83	371.52	393.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,607.56	2,607.56	2,607.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.14	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.14	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.15	0.16
WACC / Discount Rate	5.31%	5.31%	5.31%
Growth Rate	4.47%	5.47%	6.47%
Fair Value	$17.16	$31.79	$33.93
Upside / Downside	380.81%	790.53%	850.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	449.15	473.71	499.61	526.93	555.74	586.12	603.70
Payout Ratio	4.79%	21.83%	38.87%	55.91%	72.96%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	21.50	103.40	194.21	294.63	405.45	527.51	558.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.31%	5.31%	5.31%
Growth Rate	4.47%	5.47%	6.47%
Year 1 PV (M)	97.26	98.19	99.13
Year 2 PV (M)	171.82	175.13	178.46
Year 3 PV (M)	245.19	252.30	259.54
Year 4 PV (M)	317.38	329.70	342.39
Year 5 PV (M)	388.40	407.35	427.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	17,829.93	18,699.80	19,603.29
Equity Value (M)	19,049.98	19,962.47	20,909.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,607.56	2,607.56	2,607.56
Fair Value	$7.31	$7.66	$8.02
Upside / Downside	104.64%	114.44%	124.62%

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Harbin Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (600664.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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