Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Vital Microtech Co., Ltd. (600641.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.54 - $0.70$0.62
Multi-Stage$1.02 - $1.13$1.07
Blended Fair Value$0.85
Current Price$22.00
Upside-96.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.20%-2.64%0.070.140.120.100.000.160.560.240.070.13
YoY Growth---51.60%12.30%18.74%10,422.34%-99.39%-70.74%134.44%237.50%-46.67%50.00%
Dividend Yield--0.45%1.03%0.66%0.49%0.01%1.07%5.13%2.36%0.66%1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)157.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)134.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.5819.7411.84
Cash Retained (M)134.13134.13134.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.58-19.74-11.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.56114.40122.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)911.42911.42911.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate-12.81%-11.81%-10.81%
Fair Value$0.54$0.62$0.70
Upside / Downside-97.56%-97.18%-96.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)157.88139.23122.79108.2895.4984.2186.74
Payout Ratio15.04%30.03%45.03%60.02%75.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.7541.8255.2864.9971.6375.7980.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate-12.81%-11.81%-10.81%
Year 1 PV (M)37.6838.1138.54
Year 2 PV (M)44.8845.9146.96
Year 3 PV (M)47.5349.1850.88
Year 4 PV (M)47.2049.4051.68
Year 5 PV (M)44.9947.6350.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)707.44748.95792.39
Equity Value (M)929.71979.191,030.84
Shares Outstanding (M)911.42911.42911.42
Fair Value$1.02$1.07$1.13
Upside / Downside-95.36%-95.12%-94.86%

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