DDM Analysis: 600560.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.88 - $2.82	$2.33
Multi-Stage	$2.35 - $2.58	$2.46
Blended Fair Value	$2.39
Current Price	$16.42
Upside	-85.42%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.61%	4.01%	0.07	0.04	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	52.41%	-25.90%	111.44%	-21.80%	31.11%	80.63%	-12.57%	28.38%	-42.78%	-47.85%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.43%	0.27%	0.51%	0.29%	0.42%	0.30%	0.14%	0.14%	0.09%	0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	51.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)	50.93

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.32	6.45	3.87
Cash Retained (M)	50.93	50.93	50.93
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.32	-6.45	-3.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)	40.61	44.48	47.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	235.46	235.46	235.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.19	0.20
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.19	0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.18	0.19	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	9.98%	9.98%	9.98%
Growth Rate	0.60%	1.60%	2.60%
Fair Value	$1.88	$2.33	$2.82
Upside / Downside	-88.55%	-85.84%	-82.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	51.61	52.44	53.28	54.13	55.00	55.88	57.55
Payout Ratio	1.31%	19.05%	36.79%	54.52%	72.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.68	9.99	19.60	29.51	39.74	50.29	53.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.98%	9.98%	9.98%
Growth Rate	0.60%	1.60%	2.60%
Year 1 PV (M)	8.99	9.08	9.17
Year 2 PV (M)	15.89	16.20	16.52
Year 3 PV (M)	21.54	22.19	22.85
Year 4 PV (M)	26.11	27.16	28.25
Year 5 PV (M)	29.75	31.25	32.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)	451.09	473.96	497.75
Equity Value (M)	553.36	579.85	607.37
Shares Outstanding (M)	235.46	235.46	235.46
Fair Value	$2.35	$2.46	$2.58
Upside / Downside	-85.69%	-85.00%	-84.29%

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Beijing AriTime Intelligent Control Co., Ltd. (600560.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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