DDM Analysis: 600530.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.19 - $0.26	$0.22
Multi-Stage	$0.31 - $0.34	$0.33
Blended Fair Value	$0.28
Current Price	$8.14
Upside	-96.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-32.82%	-27.60%	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.07	0.09	0.08	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	-65.05%	-40.24%	-28.58%	-25.42%	22.98%	-73.28%	-24.29%	12.12%	-0.18%	27.86%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.05%	0.30%	0.33%	0.34%	0.74%	0.52%	1.04%	1.61%	1.16%	0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	25.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)	15.86

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5.10	3.19	1.91
Cash Retained (M)	15.86	15.86	15.86
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5.10	-3.19	-1.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)	10.75	12.67	13.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	767.09	767.09	767.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.03	0.03	0.03
WACC / Discount Rate	9.89%	9.89%	9.89%
Growth Rate	-3.76%	-2.76%	-1.76%
Fair Value	$0.19	$0.22	$0.26
Upside / Downside	-97.69%	-97.25%	-96.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	25.52	24.81	24.13	23.46	22.81	22.18	22.85
Payout Ratio	37.87%	48.29%	58.72%	69.15%	79.57%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9.66	11.98	14.17	16.22	18.15	19.97	21.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.89%	9.89%	9.89%
Growth Rate	-3.76%	-2.76%	-1.76%
Year 1 PV (M)	10.79	10.91	11.02
Year 2 PV (M)	11.49	11.73	11.98
Year 3 PV (M)	11.85	12.23	12.61
Year 4 PV (M)	11.95	12.45	12.97
Year 5 PV (M)	11.83	12.46	13.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)	181.96	191.61	201.66
Equity Value (M)	239.88	251.39	263.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	767.09	767.09	767.09
Fair Value	$0.31	$0.33	$0.34
Upside / Downside	-96.16%	-95.97%	-95.78%

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Shanghai Jiaoda Onlly Co.,Ltd (600530.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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