DDM Analysis: 600409.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.75 - $1.08	$0.91
Multi-Stage	$2.07 - $2.28	$2.17
Blended Fair Value	$1.54
Current Price	$5.63
Upside	-72.62%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-16.48%	-6.28%	0.16	0.27	0.36	0.36	0.33	0.41	0.44	0.30	0.30	0.31
YoY Growth	-	-	-39.06%	-25.29%	-0.07%	11.43%	-19.82%	-8.07%	46.35%	-0.29%	-2.95%	-1.19%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.00%	5.34%	5.49%	4.51%	3.00%	8.08%	5.88%	3.50%	3.16%	4.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	225.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	183.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)	42.87

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	45.19	28.24	16.95
Cash Retained (M)	42.87	42.87	42.87
(-) Cash Required (M)	-45.19	-28.24	-16.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-2.32	14.62	25.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,065.71	2,065.71	2,065.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.10	0.10
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	-4.61%	-3.61%	-2.61%
Fair Value	$0.75	$0.91	$1.08
Upside / Downside	-86.64%	-83.77%	-80.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	225.96	217.80	209.93	202.35	195.05	188.00	193.64
Payout Ratio	81.03%	82.82%	84.62%	86.41%	88.21%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	183.09	180.39	177.64	174.86	172.04	169.20	179.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	-4.61%	-3.61%	-2.61%
Year 1 PV (M)	167.64	169.40	171.16
Year 2 PV (M)	153.42	156.66	159.93
Year 3 PV (M)	140.35	144.81	149.36
Year 4 PV (M)	128.33	133.80	139.44
Year 5 PV (M)	117.30	123.58	130.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,561.99	3,752.65	3,951.39
Equity Value (M)	4,269.04	4,480.90	4,701.41
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,065.71	2,065.71	2,065.71
Fair Value	$2.07	$2.17	$2.28
Upside / Downside	-63.29%	-61.47%	-59.57%

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Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.,Ltd (600409.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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