DDM Analysis: 600369.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.04 - $1.52	$1.27
Multi-Stage	$2.59 - $2.86	$2.72
Blended Fair Value	$2.00
Current Price	$4.75
Upside	-57.96%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.97%	8.05%	0.14	0.11	0.19	0.23	0.21	0.16	0.17	0.20	0.26	0.17
YoY Growth	-	-	24.76%	-41.92%	-14.69%	8.69%	34.70%	-7.36%	-17.76%	-20.26%	47.21%	167.98%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.23%	2.86%	4.98%	5.22%	4.48%	3.43%	2.98%	4.68%	4.11%	2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	922.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	251.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)	670.81

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	184.42	115.27	69.16
Cash Retained (M)	670.81	670.81	670.81
(-) Cash Required (M)	-184.42	-115.27	-69.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	486.39	555.55	601.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	6,419.31	6,419.31	6,419.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.11	0.13	0.13
WACC / Discount Rate	6.60%	6.60%	6.60%
Growth Rate	-3.97%	-2.97%	-1.97%
Fair Value	$1.04	$1.27	$1.52
Upside / Downside	-78.02%	-73.17%	-68.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	922.12	894.70	868.09	842.27	817.23	792.92	816.71
Payout Ratio	27.25%	39.80%	52.35%	64.90%	77.45%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	251.31	356.11	454.46	546.65	632.95	713.63	755.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.60%	6.60%	6.60%
Growth Rate	-3.97%	-2.97%	-1.97%
Year 1 PV (M)	330.63	334.08	337.52
Year 2 PV (M)	391.76	399.96	408.25
Year 3 PV (M)	437.51	451.32	465.42
Year 4 PV (M)	470.33	490.23	510.76
Year 5 PV (M)	492.34	518.52	545.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,493.50	15,264.04	16,067.02
Equity Value (M)	16,616.07	17,458.15	18,334.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	6,419.31	6,419.31	6,419.31
Fair Value	$2.59	$2.72	$2.86
Upside / Downside	-45.51%	-42.74%	-39.87%

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Southwest Securities Co., Ltd. (600369.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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