DDM Analysis: 600339.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.86 - $4.18	$2.70
Multi-Stage	$1.77 - $1.93	$1.85
Blended Fair Value	$2.27
Current Price	$3.39
Upside	-32.99%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-2.20%	9.12%	0.06	0.05	0.03	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	15.49%	63.52%	-45.20%	7.12%	-19.28%	48.61%	505.46%	-76.97%	-38.31%	109.31%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.69%	1.49%	0.79%	1.81%	1.40%	2.37%	0.88%	0.17%	0.42%	0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	526.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	148.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)	377.93

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	105.31	65.82	39.49
Cash Retained (M)	377.93	377.93	377.93
(-) Cash Required (M)	-105.31	-65.82	-39.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)	272.62	312.11	338.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,582.29	5,582.29	5,582.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.08	0.08	0.09
WACC / Discount Rate	7.93%	7.93%	7.93%
Growth Rate	3.72%	4.72%	5.72%
Fair Value	$1.86	$2.70	$4.18
Upside / Downside	-45.10%	-20.46%	23.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	526.56	551.42	577.45	604.72	633.27	663.16	683.06
Payout Ratio	28.23%	40.58%	52.94%	65.29%	77.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	148.63	223.78	305.68	394.82	491.70	596.85	631.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.93%	7.93%	7.93%
Growth Rate	3.72%	4.72%	5.72%
Year 1 PV (M)	205.36	207.34	209.32
Year 2 PV (M)	257.44	262.43	267.46
Year 3 PV (M)	305.15	314.06	323.15
Year 4 PV (M)	348.75	362.40	376.44
Year 5 PV (M)	388.49	407.58	427.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,347.59	8,757.83	9,184.04
Equity Value (M)	9,852.79	10,311.65	10,787.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,582.29	5,582.29	5,582.29
Fair Value	$1.77	$1.85	$1.93
Upside / Downside	-47.93%	-45.51%	-42.99%

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China Petroleum Engineering Corporation (600339.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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