Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Orient International Enterprise, Ltd. (600278.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.98 - $2.93$2.44
Multi-Stage$1.66 - $1.81$1.74
Blended Fair Value$2.09
Current Price$7.42
Upside-71.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.55%12.77%0.220.160.170.150.200.170.100.070.080.07
YoY Growth--38.27%-8.21%19.04%-26.30%17.65%72.39%41.32%-9.18%2.14%12.36%
Dividend Yield--3.41%2.57%2.39%1.81%2.37%1.83%0.58%0.69%0.53%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)172.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.6826.0515.63
Cash Retained (M)172.44172.44172.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.68-26.05-15.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)130.76146.39156.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)899.70899.70899.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate15.35%15.35%15.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.98$2.44$2.93
Upside / Downside-73.26%-67.14%-60.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208.38221.93236.35251.71268.08285.50294.06
Payout Ratio17.25%31.80%46.35%60.90%75.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.9470.57109.55153.29202.26256.95272.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.35%15.35%15.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)60.6061.1861.75
Year 2 PV (M)80.7982.3383.88
Year 3 PV (M)97.0899.87102.71
Year 4 PV (M)110.01114.24118.59
Year 5 PV (M)120.01125.81131.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,028.501,078.181,129.76
Equity Value (M)1,496.991,561.601,628.51
Shares Outstanding (M)899.70899.70899.70
Fair Value$1.66$1.74$1.81
Upside / Downside-77.58%-76.61%-75.61%

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