DDM Analysis: 600251.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$29.57 - $56.43	$52.89
Multi-Stage	$8.89 - $9.72	$9.30
Blended Fair Value	$31.09
Current Price	$8.21
Upside	278.72%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	42.20%	12.03%	0.53	0.28	0.15	0.10	0.03	0.09	0.14	0.10	0.14	0.16
YoY Growth	-	-	88.04%	90.25%	53.80%	204.29%	-65.27%	-32.99%	35.47%	-30.00%	-13.31%	-2.75%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.51%	3.28%	1.74%	0.98%	0.46%	1.36%	2.17%	1.42%	1.65%	2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	219.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	110.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)	109.58

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	43.95	27.47	16.48
Cash Retained (M)	109.58	109.58	109.58
(-) Cash Required (M)	-43.95	-27.47	-16.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	65.63	82.11	93.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	774.36	774.36	774.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.11	0.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.11	0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.23	0.25	0.26
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$29.57	$52.89	$56.43
Upside / Downside	260.21%	544.18%	587.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	219.74	234.02	249.23	265.43	282.69	301.06	310.09
Payout Ratio	50.13%	58.11%	66.08%	74.05%	82.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	110.16	135.98	164.69	196.56	231.88	270.95	286.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	126.71	127.91	129.11
Year 2 PV (M)	143.00	145.72	148.47
Year 3 PV (M)	159.03	163.60	168.25
Year 4 PV (M)	174.81	181.54	188.45
Year 5 PV (M)	190.35	199.54	209.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,087.94	6,381.99	6,687.30
Equity Value (M)	6,881.83	7,200.29	7,530.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	774.36	774.36	774.36
Fair Value	$8.89	$9.30	$9.72
Upside / Downside	8.25%	13.26%	18.45%

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Xinjiang Guannong Fruit & Antler Co.,Ltd. (600251.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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