DDM Analysis: 600191.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.60 - $0.87	$0.73
Multi-Stage	$0.85 - $0.94	$0.89
Blended Fair Value	$0.81
Current Price	$7.89
Upside	-89.69%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-14.42%	-21.51%	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.10	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	-68.75%	-9.27%	0.00%	-100.00%	9.75%	-43.81%	143.23%	-90.00%	36.50%	3.63%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.09%	0.38%	0.39%	0.00%	0.41%	0.19%	0.42%	0.13%	1.01%	0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	39.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)	35.53

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7.86	4.91	2.95
Cash Retained (M)	35.53	35.53	35.53
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7.86	-4.91	-2.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	27.67	30.62	32.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	484.82	484.82	484.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.06	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.06	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.06	0.07	0.07
WACC / Discount Rate	9.73%	9.73%	9.73%
Growth Rate	-0.96%	0.04%	1.04%
Fair Value	$0.60	$0.73	$0.87
Upside / Downside	-92.38%	-90.71%	-88.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	39.31	39.33	39.34	39.36	39.38	39.40	40.58
Payout Ratio	9.61%	25.68%	41.76%	57.84%	73.92%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3.78	10.10	16.43	22.77	29.11	35.46	37.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.73%	9.73%	9.73%
Growth Rate	-0.96%	0.04%	1.04%
Year 1 PV (M)	9.11	9.21	9.30
Year 2 PV (M)	13.38	13.65	13.92
Year 3 PV (M)	16.72	17.23	17.76
Year 4 PV (M)	19.29	20.08	20.90
Year 5 PV (M)	21.20	22.29	23.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)	333.65	350.84	368.73
Equity Value (M)	413.35	433.30	454.02
Shares Outstanding (M)	484.82	484.82	484.82
Fair Value	$0.85	$0.89	$0.94
Upside / Downside	-89.19%	-88.67%	-88.13%

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Baotou Huazi Industry Co., Ltd (600191.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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