DDM Analysis: 600148.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.62 - $0.98	$0.79
Multi-Stage	$4.41 - $4.90	$4.65
Blended Fair Value	$2.72
Current Price	$19.73
Upside	-86.23%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	145.27%	-12.19%	0.04	0.00	0.02	0.18	0.12	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.01	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	-88.42%	57.46%	26,146.92%	-99.03%	7,869.76%	-95.48%	-87.65%	-28.86%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.22%	0.00%	0.15%	1.28%	0.89%	0.00%	0.23%	0.00%	0.04%	0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	9.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1.89	1.18	0.71
Cash Retained (M)	3.00	3.00	3.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1.89	-1.18	-0.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1.11	1.82	2.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	142.55	142.55	142.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.05	0.06	0.06
WACC / Discount Rate	-0.21%	-0.21%	-0.21%
Growth Rate	-8.06%	-7.06%	-6.06%
Fair Value	$0.62	$0.79	$0.98
Upside / Downside	-96.85%	-96.01%	-95.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	9.46	8.79	8.17	7.59	7.05	6.56	6.75
Payout Ratio	68.26%	72.61%	76.96%	81.31%	85.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6.46	6.38	6.29	6.17	6.04	5.90	6.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-0.21%	-0.21%	-0.21%
Growth Rate	-8.06%	-7.06%	-6.06%
Year 1 PV (M)	6.33	6.39	6.46
Year 2 PV (M)	6.18	6.31	6.45
Year 3 PV (M)	6.01	6.21	6.41
Year 4 PV (M)	5.84	6.09	6.36
Year 5 PV (M)	5.65	5.96	6.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)	598.02	631.26	665.96
Equity Value (M)	628.02	662.23	697.94
Shares Outstanding (M)	142.55	142.55	142.55
Fair Value	$4.41	$4.65	$4.90
Upside / Downside	-77.67%	-76.45%	-75.18%

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Changchun Yidong Clutch CO.,LTD (600148.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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