DDM Analysis: 600103.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.33 - $0.56	$0.43
Multi-Stage	$1.41 - $1.56	$1.48
Blended Fair Value	$0.96
Current Price	$3.68
Upside	-73.99%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	14.25%	-4.30%	0.03	0.06	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	-54.03%	642.58%	-46.32%	-0.68%	6.94%	-12.92%	-38.84%	-17.71%	-17.43%	-8.55%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.21%	2.69%	0.30%	0.55%	0.67%	0.68%	0.61%	0.92%	0.78%	0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	63.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	40.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)	22.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	12.60	7.88	4.73
Cash Retained (M)	22.38	22.38	22.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-12.60	-7.88	-4.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)	9.77	14.50	17.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,210.14	2,210.14	2,210.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.02	0.02	0.03
WACC / Discount Rate	4.48%	4.48%	4.48%
Growth Rate	-2.22%	-1.22%	-0.22%
Fair Value	$0.33	$0.43	$0.56
Upside / Downside	-90.96%	-88.25%	-84.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	63.00	62.24	61.48	60.73	59.99	59.25	61.03
Payout Ratio	64.49%	69.59%	74.69%	79.79%	84.90%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	40.63	43.31	45.92	48.46	50.93	53.33	56.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.48%	4.48%	4.48%
Growth Rate	-2.22%	-1.22%	-0.22%
Year 1 PV (M)	41.03	41.45	41.87
Year 2 PV (M)	41.22	42.06	42.92
Year 3 PV (M)	41.21	42.49	43.79
Year 4 PV (M)	41.03	42.74	44.49
Year 5 PV (M)	40.71	42.83	45.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,912.48	3,064.49	3,222.78
Equity Value (M)	3,117.68	3,276.06	3,440.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,210.14	2,210.14	2,210.14
Fair Value	$1.41	$1.48	$1.56
Upside / Downside	-61.67%	-59.72%	-57.69%

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Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry Co.,Ltd. (600103.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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