DDM Analysis: 600012.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$195.92 - $230.83	$216.32
Multi-Stage	$45.25 - $49.61	$47.39
Blended Fair Value	$131.86
Current Price	$13.33
Upside	889.18%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	24.00%	12.79%	0.73	0.55	0.55	0.23	0.23	0.25	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23
YoY Growth	-	-	33.28%	0.00%	139.13%	0.00%	-8.00%	8.70%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	4.55%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.26%	4.00%	6.16%	2.97%	3.16%	4.89%	3.27%	2.41%	1.38%	1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,925.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	177.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,748.04

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	385.02	240.64	144.38
Cash Retained (M)	1,748.04	1,748.04	1,748.04
(-) Cash Required (M)	-385.02	-240.64	-144.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,363.02	1,507.40	1,603.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,658.61	1,658.61	1,658.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.82	0.91	0.97
LTM Dividend per Share	0.11	0.11	0.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.82	0.91	0.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.93	1.02	1.07
WACC / Discount Rate	5.62%	5.62%	5.62%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$195.92	$216.32	$230.83
Upside / Downside	1,369.80%	1,522.83%	1,631.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,925.12	2,050.26	2,183.52	2,325.45	2,476.61	2,637.59	2,716.72
Payout Ratio	9.20%	25.36%	41.52%	57.68%	73.84%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	177.08	519.92	906.58	1,341.31	1,828.72	2,373.83	2,512.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.62%	5.62%	5.62%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	487.62	492.25	496.87
Year 2 PV (M)	797.44	812.63	827.96
Year 3 PV (M)	1,106.54	1,138.30	1,170.67
Year 4 PV (M)	1,414.92	1,469.33	1,525.30
Year 5 PV (M)	1,722.58	1,805.78	1,892.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)	69,530.87	72,889.24	76,376.14
Equity Value (M)	75,059.97	78,607.52	82,289.10
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,658.61	1,658.61	1,658.61
Fair Value	$45.25	$47.39	$49.61
Upside / Downside	239.50%	255.54%	272.19%

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Anhui Expressway Company Limited (600012.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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