Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lion Corporation (4912.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,245.63 - $2,475.58$1,727.08
Multi-Stage$1,876.08 - $2,060.13$1,966.35
Blended Fair Value$1,846.71
Current Price$1,490.00
Upside23.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.64%10.49%26.3326.6824.9125.2023.0920.9920.9815.7310.449.61
YoY Growth---1.30%7.11%-1.13%9.12%10.02%0.02%33.36%50.74%8.61%-1.04%
Dividend Yield--1.49%1.94%1.74%1.85%1.07%0.91%0.90%0.73%0.52%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,876.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,509.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,367.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,175.202,609.501,565.70
Cash Retained (M)13,367.0013,367.0013,367.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,175.20-2,609.50-1,565.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,191.8010,757.5011,801.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)276.79276.79276.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.2138.8742.64
LTM Dividend per Share27.1327.1327.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.2138.8742.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend60.3465.9969.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Fair Value$1,245.63$1,727.08$2,475.58
Upside / Downside-16.40%15.91%66.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,876.0021,399.9921,937.1322,487.7523,052.1923,630.8024,339.73
Payout Ratio35.97%46.78%57.58%68.39%79.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,509.0010,009.9812,631.7815,378.8818,255.9321,267.7222,514.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Year 1 PV (M)9,313.739,405.489,497.23
Year 2 PV (M)10,935.6711,152.1911,370.84
Year 3 PV (M)12,387.8612,757.5913,134.60
Year 4 PV (M)13,682.5214,229.7014,793.13
Year 5 PV (M)14,831.1115,576.1716,350.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)458,130.51481,145.30505,075.87
Equity Value (M)519,281.42544,266.44570,222.56
Shares Outstanding (M)276.79276.79276.79
Fair Value$1,876.08$1,966.35$2,060.13
Upside / Downside25.91%31.97%38.26%

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